Abstract

In this research, we examine the impact of a player’s Usage Rate (USG%) on both their individual performance and their team’s overall success in the NBA. By analyzing data from the last five seasons, we aim to determine whether teams that primarily rely on one or two high-usage players tend to perform better than those that adopt a more balanced offensive approach. Additionally, at an individual level, we investigate whether an increased Usage Rate has a positive or negative effect on key performance metrics such as True Shooting Percentage (TS%), and Turnover Rate (TOV%).

Introduction

A fundamental question in basketball strategy is whether teams should build around one or two star players who dominate offensive possessions or adopt a more team-oriented approach with a balanced offensive distribution. Throughout NBA history, successful teams have emerged from both philosophies.

However, in recent years, the league has seen a growing trend toward high-Usage Rate players. Unlike past decades, where most teams relied on duos or “Big Threes,” modern offenses often feature a single player with an exceptionally high Usage Rate. This shift is evident in historical data: of the top 10 single-season Usage Rate records, only three occurred before 2010 (Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, and Allen Iverson). The gap becomes even more pronounced when compared to the ABA era—for example, Charlie Scott’s USG% record (33.15% in 1971-72) is more than eight percentage points lower than the NBA’s all-time single season record, held by Russell Westbrook (41.65%).

Given this trend, our research seeks to answer a critical question: Does increased offensive responsibility lead to greater efficiency, or does it come with diminishing returns?

Data & Methodology

For the purposes of this research, we utilize data from the last 3 NBA seasons. Only the regular season was taken into consideration and players who have played less than 50% of the games or averaged less than 20 minutes per game were excluded. Next, the players were split into three groups, based on their level of usage. 

• Medium to high Usage Rate (23-28%)
• High Usage Rate (28-33%)
• Very high Usage Rate (greater than 33%)

Using this data, we will examine the correlation between the Usage Rate and two other important offensive indices, True Shot Percentage (the player’s ability to shoot the ball efficiently) and Turnover Rate (his ability to handle or pass the ball without committing errors). 

Results

Over the three seasons analyzed, a total of 212 players met the criteria outlined in the previous section. The 2022-23 season had the highest number of qualifying players (78). Table 1 presents the top 10 players with the highest Usage Rate during this period, a list dominated by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Dončić. In the 2023-24 season, Giannis led the NBA with a Usage Rate of 38.8%, serving as the primary offensive weapon for the Milwaukee Bucks, while Dončić consistently maintained a USG% above 36%.

A surprising absence from the top-10 Usage Rate leaders is Nikola Jokić. Despite his immense influence on the Denver Nuggets’ offense, Jokić never recorded a USG% higher than 31.9%. Additionally, aside from Joel Embiid and Victor Wembanyama, most high-Usage Rate players are either guards or point forwards (such as Antetokounmpo and LeBron James).

Usage Rate and True Shooting Percentage (TS%)

Figure 1 illustrates the relationship between Usage Rate (USG%) and True Shooting Percentage (TS%). The majority of highly efficient shooters (TS% > 60%) are clustered in the upper-left section of the graph, suggesting that higher Usage Rates do not necessarily correlate with better shooting efficiency.

Notably, the top 5 players in TS% had a Usage Rate between 27% and 32%, with Nikola Jokić appearing twice (2023-24 and 2021-22). In the 2023-24 season, he recorded a TS% of 70.1%, among the highest in the league.

Conversely, Luka Dončić exemplifies an interesting case. In 2021-22, he had an exceptionally high Usage Rate but a relatively poor TS%, ranking in the bottom 50th percentile. However, by 2023-24, his TS% increased by nearly 4 percentage points, coinciding with the Dallas Mavericks’ run to the NBA Finals, where they lost 4-1 to the Boston Celtics.

Usage Rate and Turnover Percentage (TOV%)

Figure 2 examines the relationship between USG% and Turnover Percentage (TOV%). Unlike the previous figure, no clear pattern emerges. Players with moderate to high Usage Rates (23%-33%) display wide variability in TOV%, with some maintaining low turnover rates while others struggle with ball control.

Interestingly, players with an extremely high Usage Rate (USG% > 32%) tend to cluster around the median TOV%. This challenges the common assumption that high-Usage players inevitably commit more turnovers due to fatigue or decision-making errors over extended minutes. Supporting this observation, the regression line in Figure 2 is nearly parallel to the X-axis, indicating an insignificant linear relationship between USG% and TOV%.

Correlation Analysis

Table 2 summarizes the correlation between Usage Rate (USG%) and the two other key metrics (TS% and TOV%).

A statistically significant positive correlation exists between USG% and TS% (p < 0.05, r ≈ 0.28). This suggests that, on average, players with higher Usage Rates tend to be more efficient scorers. However, the strength of this relationship is relatively weak, likely influenced by superstar players (e.g., Nikola Jokić, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry) who maintain elite efficiency despite heavy usage.

In contrast, the correlation between USG% and TOV% is not statistically significant (p > 0.05). This implies that high-Usage players are not necessarily more turnover-prone. Notably, while some high-Usage players struggle with turnovers (e.g., Julius Randle, De’Aaron Fox in certain seasons), others control possessions exceptionally well despite their workload.

Segmentation Analysis: Performance by Usage Rate Groups

The final stage of analysis examines player performance by Usage Rate segmentation groups:

1. Medium to High Usage Rate (23-28%)
2. High Usage Rate (28-33%)
3. Very High Usage Rate (>33%)

Figure 3 demonstrates that TS% increases as Usage Rate rises. However, in the Medium to High Usage Rate group (23-28%), TS% distribution is more positively skewed compared to the other two groups.

Figure 4 highlights a key finding regarding TOV%. While the Medium to High Usage group exhibits slight positive skewness, the Very High Usage group (>33%) shows significant negative skewness. This suggests that while most high-Usage players struggle with turnovers, a select few (e.g., LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Damian Lillard) effectively manage their turnovers despite high offensive responsibility.

Conclusion

In this research we examined the relationship between Usage Rate, True Shooting Percentage and Turnover Rate in NBA over the last 3 years. Our findings suggest that players with high Usage Rate tend to be more efficient scorers than those with lower Usage Rate, underlining the fact that running the offense very often doesn’t have a negative impact on their performance due to physical and mental fatigue. Furthermore, a similar conclusion applies to Turnover Rate, where such players rarely commit turnovers despite the amount of time they keep the ball in their hands.

Further future research could focus on analyzing additional factors such as the age, the position and time played or analyze the trend of this relationship throughout the years.

Resource : www.basketball-reference.com