Abstract

This study examines the relationship between a team’s Pace and its offensive efficiency by analyzing the last 10 years of Euroleague basketball. We explore the historical trend of team Pace to determine whether more teams today prefer a fast-paced, transitional game with shorter possessions or rely on a slower-paced style with longer possessions. Additionally, we aim to identify which of these approaches is more efficient in terms of scoring, as reflected by Offensive Rating. Finally, we analyze the historical trend of Pace among some of Euroleague’s top teams over the past decade.

Introduction

How has the game evolved in Europe over the past decade? Has it shifted towards a more NBA-style approach with more possessions per minute, or does Euroleague still emphasize a slower pace? What historical trends can be observed among major European teams like Real Madrid, Fenerbahce Ulker, Panathinaikos Athens, and Olympiacos Piraeus? Are high-paced teams more efficient, capitalizing on transition play and early offenses, or do teams that favor longer possessions and more deliberate ball movement find greater success?

This study addresses these questions by dividing the research into three parts. First, we examine the evolution of average league Pace over the last 10 years, identifying the fastest and slowest teams. Next, we investigate the relationship between Pace and Offensive Rating. Finally, we explore how Pace has evolved for Euroleague’s most consistently participating teams.

Data & Methodology

We obtained advanced statistics from RealGM covering a 10-year period, from the 2014–2015 season to Round 28 of the current 2024–25 regular season. All competition phases (regular season, play-in, playoffs, and Final Four) are included. The two metrics analyzed are Pace (average possessions per game) and Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions).

To measure the relationship between Pace and Offensive Rating, we apply the Shapiro-Wilk test to determine if our data follows the normal distribution, and subsequently we use the Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient as a method to measure its strength.

Results

League Pace Trends:

Figure 1 illustrates the average league Pace per season. No clear upward or downward trend emerges, indicating that there has not been any major revolution leading to a faster or slower game. The highest value during this 10-year period was recorded a decade ago, with 71.5 possessions per game. While fluctuations occurred between 2014 and 2020, the general trend was a slight decline.

Of particular interest is the period between 2020 and 2024. In the first two seasons, league Pace dropped by nearly two possessions per game, from 70.2 in 2019–20 to 68.1 in 2021–22. However, it has been increasing yearly since then. While the decline during the 2019–2022 period cannot be conclusively explained, it’s worth noting that these seasons coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have impacted players’ physical performance.

Team Pace Analysis:

Table 1 presents the top-10 and bottom-10 teams by average Pace during this period. Notably, many of the fastest-paced teams were not regular Euroleague participants and only appeared sporadically, such as Turow, Neptunas, Strasbourg, and Limoges. However, none of these teams have ever reached the playoffs, suggesting that higher Pace is often a characteristic of weaker sides. This approach could be a strategy to maximize the offensive talent of their star players or to avoid playing against a well-organized defense, where their opponents would likely have an advantage.

Interestingly, three out of the five French teams that have participated in Euroleague over the last decade appear in the top-10 list. Could fast-paced play be a distinctive feature of French basketball?

In contrast, former Yugoslavian teams like Crvena Zvezda Belgrade, KK Partizan, and Buducnost Podgorica tend to adopt a slower playing style. The same applies to some successful clubs such as Olympiacos Piraeus and Fenerbahce Istanbul. Notably, both KK Partizan and Fenerbahce Istanbul have been coached by the legendary Željko Obradović, known for his preference for a slower-paced, more controlled style of play.

Top Teams’ Pace Evolution:

In Figure 2, we illustrate the evolution of Pace for the most consistent Euroleague participants: Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Baskonia Vitoria, Maccabi Tel Aviv, Panathinaikos Athens, Olympiacos Piraeus, Anadolu Efes Istanbul, Fenerbahce Istanbul, Zalgiris Kaunas, and Armani Milan.

Key observations include:

• Baskonia and Maccabi Tel Aviv have consistently played at a high Pace, with Maccabi’s style heavily influenced by its reliance on American players.
• During the Obradović era, Fenerbahce Istanbul maintained a significantly lower Pace than league average, reaching a decade-low of 65.7 possessions per game in the 2017–18 season, when they made the Euroleague final.
• Most of the other teams have seen a notable increase in Pace this season, particularly Olympiacos, which rose from 67.4 to 70.5 possessions per game.

Offensive Rating Trends:

Figure 3 shows the evolution of average league Offensive Rating over time. Teams have become increasingly efficient on offense, with Offensive Rating rising from 107.7 points per 100 possessions in 2014–15 to 117.1 points per 100 possessions in the current season.

The most significant jump occurred between the 2016–17 and 2017–18 seasons, where Offensive Rating rose from 110.6 to 115.9. However, during the COVID-affected 2019–2022 period, Offensive Rating slightly declined each year before stabilizing around the 2022–23 season.

Figure 4 displays the historical Offensive Rating trends of the top teams mentioned earlier. Despite some fluctuations, all teams have generally improved their Offensive Ratings in recent years, underscoring the shift towards a more offense-oriented style of play.

Pace and Offensive Rating Correlation

Finally, we examine the relationship between Offensive Rating and Team Pace to determine whether faster-paced teams are more efficient.

Using the Shapiro-Wilk test, we confirmed that the data for both variables follows a normal distribution, as their p-value is greater than 0.05 (0.66 for Pace and 0.533 for Offensive Rating). Therefore, Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient was applied. As shown in Table 2, a slight negative correlation exists between Offensive Rating and Pace. Contrary to expectations, slower-paced teams appear to be slightly more efficient than their faster-paced counterparts. This finding is statistically significant, with a p-value below 0.05.

Conclusion

This research analyzed the historical trends of Offensive Rating and Pace in Euroleague basketball and their correlation over the past decade. While average Pace has shown both declines and subsequent increases, it has not changed dramatically. In contrast, Offensive Rating has risen sharply, reaching a period-high of 117.1 in the current season.

Interestingly, the correlation between Pace and Offensive Rating is weak but statistically significant, suggesting that increasing possessions and shot attempts does not necessarily lead to higher offensive efficiency.

Future research could explore the impact of other factors on Offensive Rating, such as the three-point attempt rate (as three-point shooting continues to play an increasingly crucial role) or the success of defense-oriented teams.

Data Source : realgm.com