Match 1: Colombia – Japan

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Colombia and Japan. The team of J. Pekerman (FIFA ranking: 16) has been qualified from the Central American Preliminaries round, while the team of A. Nishino (FIFA ranking: 61), qualified from the Asian Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Colombia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Duels Won	Interception
Saves	Goal –

Japan

Strengths	Weaknesses
Yellow Cards*	Possession
Goal +	Total Shots

* Japan in the preliminaries round had οn average 0.5 yellow cards. This is the reason, why yellow cards is under its strengths.

Team Statistical Profiles:

Colombia

1. Based on preliminaries, Colombia scores at least 1 goal and receives 1 goal per game. Moreover, it usually receives 2 yellow cards (its average value was 2.05 cards per game). If Colombia is not getting a positive result, it might also receive 2 more yellow cards.
2. When, Colombia’s shots on target is less than its average (4.7 shots) AND its ball possession is less than its average rate (51%) it might get difficulties on getting a positive result.

Japan

1. Japan, although that it has a low total shots percentage (almost 8 total shots per game) it is expected to score at least 1 goal (its preliminaries average Goal+ in the was almost 2.4 goals).
2. Japan is not used on playing a ball possession style of football, preferring the counter attack style. Also, Japan receives few cards in its matches.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Statathlon’s predicts that Colombia might get more yellow cards than Japan during the game. Japan is expected to have a low ball percentage rate and Colombia is expected to score at least 1 goal.

Match 2: Poland – Senegal

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Poland and Senegal. The  team of A. Nawalka (FIFA ranking: 8) has been qualified from the European Preliminaries round, while the team of A. Cisse (FIFA ranking: 27), qualified from the African Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Poland

Strengths	Weaknesses
Tackles	Goal –
Fouls Won	Clean Sheets

Senegal

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Red Cards
Shots on Target	Yellow Cards

Team Statistical Profiles:

Poland

1. Poland is used to receive at least 1 yellow card per match.
2. It also receives 1 goal per game. During, 10 preliminaries matches, Poland had an average Goal – value 1.4 goals. Additionally, if Poland has ball possession rate less than 54.2% (this is its average ball possession rate) AND simultaneously has few shots on target, then is expected to face difficulties on receiving a positive result.

Senegal

1. Senegal, usually receives at least 1 yellow card per game. In the preliminaries its average rate was 1.8 yellow cards per game.
2. Senegal, used to try too many shots and is expected to score at least 1 goal.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Statathlon predicts that the referee is going to show at least 3-4 yellow cards during the game. Additionally, Senegal is going to try more shots than Poland. It is not expected to have many goals in this game. Based on the analysis, Poland is expected to win the game, with a percentage of 60%.

Match 3: Russia – Egypt

This report is focused on the analysis for the 1st match of the World Cup 2018, between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The team of St. Cherchesov (FIFA ranking: 70) has been qualified for the World Cup 2018 as the host country, while the team of  H. Cuper (FIFA ranking: 45) has been qualified from the African Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Russia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Shots on Target
Ball Recoveries	Possession

Egypt

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal –	Goal +
Yellow Cards*	Possession

* Egypt, does not receive too many yellow cards. This is the reason why the yellow cards are in its strengths. During preliminaries, Egypt’s average number of yellow cards was almost 0.8 per game; which is a quite low number, compared to the rest of African teams.

Team Statistical Profiles:

Russia

1. If Russia managed to win the ball possession with a percentage higher than 50%, then is expected to score at least 1 goal.
2. Russia, is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card during the game.
3. In general, Russia has twice shots off target than the shots on target.

Egypt

1. Based on its preliminaries stats, Egypt receives at least 1 goal from teams of similar FIFA Ranking with Russia. Moreover, it is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card during the game.
2. If Egypt’s shots on target are less than 4 AND its total shots are less than 9-10 AND its ball possession percentage is almost 50%, then it will face difficulties on receiving a positive result.
3. If Egypt manages to score at least 2 goals AND its ball possession rate is higher than its average rate (53%) AND its total shots are more than 12, then it is expected to win the game.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Statathlon predicts that the referee will show at least 2 yellow cards during the game. Both teams, is predicted to try many shots off target. If Russia, wins the ball possession, is expected to score at least 1 goal.