Match 1: Costa Rica – Serbia

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Costa Rica and Serbia. The team of O.Ramirez (FIFA ranking: 23) has been qualified from the Central American Preliminaries round, while the team of M. Krstajic (FIFA ranking: 34), qualified from the European Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Costa Rica

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interceptions	Possession
Saves	Yellow Cards

Serbia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Yellow Cards
Fouls Won	Shots on Target

Team Statistical Profiles:

Costa Rica

1. Based on its preliminaries’ performance, Costa Rica scores in average 1.4 goals per match AND receives at least 2 yellow cards. When Costa Rica faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Serbia, it usually receives almost 1 goal. In 16 games, of preliminaries,  Costa Rica’s goal difference was 2 to 1 (scored 25 and got 11 goals). Despite the fact that, Keylor Navas is one of the best goalkeepers of the tournament, Costa Rica managed to keep its sheets clean only in 6 games.
2. During preliminaries, Costa Rica’s average ball possession rate was almost 47.3%.

Serbia

1. Based on its preliminaries’ performance, Serbia received almost 1.8 yellow cards per match. Moreover, it received 1 goal (it had clean sheets only in 4/10 games) and managed to score at least 1 to 2 goals per game.
2. When Serbia faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Costa Rica, it receives 2 yellow cards AND have less shots on target than its average rate (4.8). Based on that, it is predicted to face difficulties on getting a positive result.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 3-4 yellow cards during the game. It is also expected that Costa Rica will lose ball possession. In addition, both teams have high chances to score at least one goal. Statathlon’s projection is that the most likely result is draw.

Match 2: Germany – Mexico

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Germany and Mexico. The outgoing world champion team of J. Low (FIFA ranking: 1) has been qualified undefeated from the European Preliminaries round, while the team of Juan Carlos Osorio (FIFA ranking: 15), qualified from the Central American Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Germany

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Ball Recoveries
Possession	Fouls Won

Mexico

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Shots off Target
Duels Won	Yellow Cards

Team Statistical Profiles:

Germany

1. Two of main Germany’s advantages during the preliminaries round, were the well organized defensive line (average Goal – value: 0.4 goals per game) and the very powerful offensive line (4.3 average goals per game).
2. When, Germany controls ball possession (its average value is 69%) AND has at least 8-9 shots on target, usually scores more than 2 goals.
3. Germany’s average value in total shots (shots on target + shots off target) is 15.5 shots per game.

Mexico

1. Based on preliminaries, Mexico scores on average 1.8 goals per game. When it does so, Mexico has an average ball possession close to 61%.
2. When Mexico, receives at least 2 yellow cards during a game, it faces difficulties on scoring a goal and even more on getting a positive result.
3. Mexico’s main characteristic is its well organised defensive line. During preliminaries, it managed keep the sheets clean in more that 60% of the games (10 out of 16 preliminary games).

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Germany is expected to win ball possession and try more total shots than Mexico. Based on the analysis, Germany is more likely to get a positive result with the chance of scoring many goals.

Match 3: Brazil – Switzerland

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Brazil and Switzerland. The team of coach Tite (FIFA ranking: 2) has been qualified as first from the South American Preliminaries round, while the team of V. Petkovic (FIFA ranking: 6), qualified from the European Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Brazil

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Aerial Duels Won
Possession	Interception

Switzerland

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Yellow Cards
Duels Won	Shots off Target

Team Statistical Profiles:

Brazil

1. One of Brazil’s main characteristics is the number of total shots per game. Its average value is almost 14 shots per game. During preliminaries, Brazil scored on average 2.2 goals per game. If Brazil wins ball possession, with a percentage close to 60%, then it is expected to score at least 2 goals.
2. Brazil, had the best Goal – record in the South American preliminaries by receiving only 11 goals in 18 games.
3. It receives on average 1.5 yellow cards per game.

Switzerland

1. When Switzerland has low ball possession rate (almost 50%, while its average ball possession percentage is 61%) AND 0-2 shots on target, then it is expected to face difficulties on getting a positive result.
2. Although, that Switzerland shots too many shots (average shots off target is 7.75 and average shots on target is 6.3), it is projected to score more than 1 goal unless it will win the ball possession.
3. Switzerland, usually receives 1.5 yellow cards per game. At the same time, it managed to keep easily the sheet clean. During preliminaries, its clean sheet percentage was almost 66%.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Statathlon predicts that the referee will show at least 3 yellow cards during the game. It is also expected that both teams will try too many shots. The expected total shots number from both teams is at least 20 shots.