Match 1: France – Australia

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between France and Australia. The team of D. Deschamps (FIFA ranking: 7) has been qualified from the first group of the European Preliminaries round, while the team of B. van Marwijk (FIFA ranking: 36), qualified from the Asian Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

France

Strengths	Weaknesses
Aerial Duels Won	Interception
Shots on Target	Saves

Australia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Yellow Cards
Shots on Target	Goal –

Team Statistical Profiles:

France

1. France is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card during the match.
2. When France faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as Australia AND reaches ball possession close to 62%, then it is expected to score at least 1 goal.
3. France, during preliminaries, had on average 14 total shots per game. Moreover, France is very good in the aerial duels, by having one of the best average number in the preliminaries.

Australia

1. Australia is expected to receive at least 1 goal. During preliminaries, it was receiving 0.82 goals per match.
2. Australia is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card. During preliminaries, it was receiving almost 1.5 yellow cards per match.
3. If Australia’s shots on target are 4 or less (its average value is 4.5) AND the shots off target are less than 6.2 then it is expected to face difficulties on getting a positive result. Based on the above, the most likely result for Australia is going to be the drawn.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 3 yellow cards. France is expected to try too many shots on target during the game. In addition, France is predicted to score at least 1 goal. If France wins ball’s possession, then it will have many chances to score a 2nd goal as well. As a result, the most likely result is France’s win (as it is depicted in the pie chart above).

Match 2: Argentina – Iceland

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Argentina and Iceland. The team of the superstar Lionel Messi, coached by J. Sampaoli (FIFA ranking: 5) has been qualified from the South American Preliminaries round, while the team of H. Hallgrimsson (FIFA ranking: 22), qualified for the first time of its history to a World Cup from the European Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Argentina

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Yellow Cards
Duels Lost	Goal+

Iceland

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Goal+
Aerial Duels Won	Possession

Team Statistical Profiles:

Argentina

1. When Argentina is facing teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as Iceland, it usually scores at least 1 goal. Also, Argentina receives at least 2 yellow cards (Argentina’s average number in yellow cards during preliminaries was 2.6 cards per match).
2. Argentina, is expected to win the ball possession, (its average preliminaries’ rate was 59%). It is also expected to have at least 3 total shots (shots on target + shots off target).
3. If Argentina receives 1 goal, then most likely, due to its attacking style will receive a 2nd goal as well. In almost 50% of the preliminaries games,  when it received 1 goal, then it received more.

Iceland

1. Iceland, despite it’s low ball possession rate (average rate is 44.9%), has many chances to score at least 1 goal. Based on preliminaries’ performance, it scored at least 1 goal in 8/10 matches. Interesting fact: On the 2 matches that Iceland didn’t score,  it lost the game at the last minutes.
2. When Iceland has below 4.8 shots on target AND it receives 3 or more yellow cards then it is predicted to face difficulties on getting a positive result.
3. If Iceland, managed to try at least 7 shots on target then it is predicted to score at least 1 or 2 goals. Based on preliminaries’ performance, it scored 2 or more goals in 6/10 matches.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
During the game the referee is expected to show at least 2-3 yellow cards. If Iceland managed to win ball’s possession it is expected to score at least 1 goal and at the end to receive a positive result.

Match 3: Peru – Denmark

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Peru and Denmark. The team of R. Gareca (FIFA ranking: 11) has been qualified to the World Cup after 36 years of absence, from the South American Preliminaries round, while the team of A. Hareide (FIFA ranking: 12), qualified from the European Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Peru

Strengths	Weaknesses
Saves	Goal –
Interception	Yellow & Red Cards

Denamrk

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Goal –
Aerial Duels Won	Fouls Conceded

Team Statistical Profiles:

Peru

1. Peru, usually receives too many cards. It is predicted that it will receive at least 2 yellow cards. During preliminaries, it had the highest average percentage in red cards with 0.1 per game and 2.4 yellow cards.
2. If Peru managed to have ball’s possession with a rate greater than 50.6% AND try at least 5 shots on target, then it is expected to score 1 goal.
3. When, Peru faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Denmark AND has ball possession less than 50.6% AND its total shots are less than 8, then it is going to 1) receive at least 2 yellow cards and 2) face difficulties on getting a positive result.

Denmark

1. Denmark, usually scores at least 1 goal AND it receives at least 1 yellow card when it faces teams like Peru (similar FIFA Ranking). Moreover, Denmark tries too many shots (total shots average = 12), so it is expected to follow similar ‘behaviour’ during that game.
2. If Denmark’s shots on target are below 6.1 AND simultaneously the ball possession rate is less than 59% AND the total shots are 10 or less, then it will face difficulties on getting a positive result.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
It is predicted that the referee will show at least 3 yellow cards during the game. It is also expected that Denmark will win the ball possession and will score at least 1 goal.

Match 4: Croatia – Nigeria

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Croatia and Nigeria. The team of Z. Dalic (FIFA ranking: 20) has been qualified from the European Preliminaries round, while the “Super Eagles” coached by G. Rohr (FIFA ranking: 48), qualified from the African Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Croatia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Aerial Duels Won	Shots on Target
Interception	Yellow & Red Cards

Nigeria

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goals +	Possession
Shots off Target	Yellow Cards

Team Statistical Profiles:

Croatia

1. Croatia is expected to score at least 1 goal in the game, as its average Goal+ rate during preliminaries was almost 1.5 goal/game. It is also expected to receive at least 1 yellow card. Moreover, Croatia is expected to have high percentages on Ball Recoveries & Interceptions.
2. Croatia is going to score more than 1 goal in the match, only if it is going to win the ball possession with a percentage of almost 60% AND have twice shots on target than its average value (4.1).
3. If Croatia, has ball possession less than its average rate – 55% AND receives at least 2 yellow cards AND also tries 0-3 shots on target, then it is expected to face difficulties on receiving a positive result.

Nigeria

1. Nigeria, it is expected to receive at least 1 goal
2. Nigeria is expected to score at least 1 goal.
3. Nigeria, is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card. Its average value on the yellow cards during preliminaries was 1.5 cards per game.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:

It is predicted that the referee will show at least 2 yellow cards during the game. It is also expected that Croatia will score at least 1 goal. Based on the analysis, Croatia has more chances to win the game.