Play-off for third place: Belgium – England

This report is focused on the analysis for the third place of the 2018 World Cup, between Belgium (FIFA ranking: 3) and England (FIFA ranking: 12). The team of R. Martinez, lost the semifinal game from France with 0-1 and eliminated from the final. Belgium, is focused now on winning the third place, which is going to be the best of its history. On the other hand, the team of G. Southgate, has also lost its semifinal game from Croatia with 1-2. England and Belgium will play for a second time during the Russian World Cup, as they were on the same group, during the first round of the World Cup (Belgium won that game with 1-0).

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Belgium

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Aerial Duels Won
Shots on Target	Yellow Cards

England

Strengths	Weaknesses
Pass Success Rate	Shots on Target
Saves	Interception

Team Statistical Profiles:

Belgium

1. Belgium has scored so far in the World Cup 14 goals by having the best offense in the tournament. Moreover, it  tries in average 8 shots on target per game. Based on its preliminaries stats, the corresponding shooting on target average value was almost 9 shots per game. Thus, when Belgium, faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as England, is expected to try at least 4 shots on target; which is its minimum average shooting on target rate. Belgium is expected to try at least 4 shots on target AND to score at least 1 goal.
2. On the other hand, Belgium usually receives 1.5 yellow cards per game, when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as England. In case that Belgium faces difficulties during the game it is expected to receive more than 1 yellow card. Moreover, based on its World Cup stats and especially the stats from the knockout phase, Belgium is expected to receive at least 1 goal from England.

England

1. When England faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Belgium, it usually receives at least 1 yellow card. So far, England has received 6 yellow cards.
2. Moreover, England based on its World Cup and preliminaries stats, is expected to have high pass success rate AND is expected to win the aerial duels. But, on the other hand it is expected to lose the interceptions AND is also expected to receive at least 1 goal from Belgium.
   
3. When England faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as Belgium AND if it is going to have a pass success rate (close to 85%) AND also if it manages to try at least 2 shots on target, then it has many chances to score at least 1 goal. 

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is expected to show at least 2-3 yellow cards during the game. England is projected to have higher pass success rate than Belgium, while Belgium is expected to try more shots on target than England. Finally, it is expected that both of the teams will score at least 1 goal.