Semi – Finals Match 1: Croatia – England

This report is focused on the analysis of the second game of the semifinals, between Croatia (FIFA ranking: 20) and England (FIFA ranking: 12). The team of Z. Dalic won the first place of Group D, by gathering 9 points in 3 games. Croatia reached the semifinals for the second time of its history after the World Cup of 1998. It managed to eliminate Denmark and Russia on the penalty shootouts during the round of 16 and the quarterfinals, correspondingly. On the other hand, the team of G. Southgate, collected 6 points on Group stage, winning the second place of Group G. On the round of 16, England won the game against Colombia on the penalty shootout and managed to proceed to the quarterfinals, where it faced Sweden. England after winning the game against Sweden with 2-0, proceed for the third time of its history to the semifinals.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Croatia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Shots off Target
Interception	Yellow Cards

England

Strengths	Weaknesses
Pass Success Rate	Shots on Target
Aerial Duels Won	Interception

Team Statistical Profiles:

Croatia

1. Croatia’s average Goal+ rate during the preliminaries was almost 1.6 goal/game, by scoring 19 goals in 12 games. While, in the World Cup, Croatia has scored so far 10 goals (2 goals per game). Thus, it is expected to score at least 1 goal in the game.
2. When Croatia faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as England, it usually wins the ball possession AND tries more shots on target than its opponent. But, on the other hand it receives in average 2 yellow cards. Thus it is expected to win the ball possession, with a rate close to its preliminaries’ average possession rate (55%) AND is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card.
3. In contrast, if Croatia, is going to lose the ball possession AND receive at least 2 yellow cards AND also tries less than 3 shots on target, then it is expected to face difficulties on receiving a positive result.

England

1. When England faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Croatia, it usually receives at least 1 yellow card. So far, England has received 5 yellow cards.
2. Moreover, England based on its World Cup and preliminaries stats, is expected to have high pass success rate AND is expected to win the aerial duels. But, on the other hand it is expected to lose the interceptions AND based to its World Cup stats is expected to receive at least 1 goal.
   
3. When England faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as Croatia AND if it is going to win the ball possession AND has a pass success rate close to 85% AND also tries at least 3 shots on target, then it has many chances to score at least 1 goal. 

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Both of the teams will be banned with at least 1 yellow card and the referee is expected to show at least 3 yellow cards during the game. England is projected to have higher pass success rate than Croatia, while Croatia is expected to win the ball possession and the interceptions. Finally, it is expected that both of the teams will score at least 1 goal.