Match 1: Sweden – England

This report is focused on the analysis of the third match of the quarterfinals between Sweden (FIFA ranking: 23) and England (FIFA ranking: 12). The team of J. Andersson qualified from the Group stage by winning two games (against South Korea and Mexico) and losing one (from Germany); collecting in total 6 points. On the round of 16, Sweden won the game against Switzerland with 1-0. On the other hand, the the team of G. Southgate, has also collected 6 points on Group stage, winning the second place of Group G. On the round of 16, England beated Colombia on the penalty shootout and managed to proceed to the quarterfinals.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Sweden

Strengths	Weaknesses
Saves	Possession
Interception	Shots on Target

England

Strengths	Weaknesses
Pass Success Rate	Aerial Duels Won
Possession	Interception

Team Statistical Profiles:

Sweden

1. In the European preliminaries, Sweden received in total 18 yellow cards, more than any other team. Its average yellow cards number was 1.5 cards per game. Moreover, in the first four games of the World Cup it received 7 yellow cards. Thus, it is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card during the game.
2. Sweden, when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as England, usually loses the ball possession AND tries few shots on target (3-5 shots). But based on its World Cup stats, it has many chances to score at least 1 goal.
   

England

1. When England faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Sweden, it usually receives at least 1 yellow card. But on the other hand, it is expected to lose the interceptions from Sweden.
2. Moreover, England based on its World Cup and preliminaries stats, is expected to have high pass success rate AND is epxected to win the ball possession. Moreover, England when faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Sweden, is predicted to try at least 5 shots on target, having many chances to score at least 1 goal.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Both of the teams is predicted to be banned with at least 1 yellow card. Therefore, the referee is going to show at least 4 yellow cards during the game. England is going to win the ball possession and is expected to try more shots on target than Sweden.

Match 2: Rusia – Croatia

This report is focused on the analysis of the last match of the quarterfinals between Russia (FIFA ranking: 70) and Croatia (FIFA ranking: 20). The team of St. Cherchesov that has been qualified for the World Cup 2018 as the host country, gathered 6 points on the Group stage by winning the second place of Group A. While on the round of 16 it won the penalty shootout against Spain. The team of Z. Dalic managed to proceed to the next round (undefeated with 9 points) by winning the first place in Group D. Croatia, proceed to the quarterfinals by eliminating Denmark on the penalty shootout.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Russia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Saves	Shots on Target
Interception	Yellow Cards

Croatia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Shots on Target	Aerial Duels Won
Possession	Ball Recoveries

Team Statistical Profiles:

Russia

1. Russia, is expected to receive at least 2 yellow cards during the game. During the Group stage, Russia received 4 yellow cards. In the round of 16, against Spain, Russia got 2 yellow cards.
2. Russia based on its stats, is not used on playing a ball possession style of football, preferring a more counter attacking style. Thus, Russia is going to lose the ball possession. It has been estimated that it will reach a ball possession rate close to 40% AND is expected to try less than 4 shots on target, when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Croatia.

Croatia

1. Croatia’s average Goal+ rate during the preliminaries was almost 1.6 goal/game, by scoring 19 goals in 12 games. While, in the World Cup it has scored 8 goals (2 goals per game). Thus, it is expected to score at least 1 goal in the game.
2. When Croatia faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as Russia, it usually wins the ball possession AND tries more shots on target than its opponent. But, on the other hand it receives in average 2 yellow cards. Thus it is expected to win the ball possession, with a rate close to its preliminaries’ average possession rate (55%) AND is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card.
3. In contrast if Croatia, is going to lose the ball possession AND receive at least 2 yellow cards AND also try less than 3 shots on target, then it is expected to face difficulties on receiving a positive result.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Both of the teams is predicted to be banned with at least 1 yellow card. Therefore, the referee is going to show at least 3-4 yellow cards during the game. Croatia is going to win the ball possession and is expected to try more shots on target than Russia. While, Russia is going to win the interceptions in a very ambiguous game.