Match 1: Egypt – Uruguay

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Egypt and Uruguay. The “Pharaos”, coached by H. Cuper (FIFA ranking: 45) has been qualified from the African Preliminaries round, while the team of O. Tabarez (FIFA ranking: 14), qualified from the South American Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Egypt

Strengths	Weaknesses
Yellow/Red Cards*	Goal +
Shots on Target	Possession

Uruguay

Strengths	Weaknesses
Aerial Duels Won	Yellow Cards
Fouls Won	Goal –

* Egypt, does not receive many yellow or red cards. This is the reason why the yellow/red cards are in its strengths. More specifically, Egypt had one of the lowest average number of yellow cards, during the African preliminaries, with almost 0.9 cards per game.

Team Statistical Profiles:

Egypt

1. Egypt is expected to receive at least 1 goal. During preliminaries (against teams with similar or better FIFA Ranking), Egypt, received at least 1 goal with a percentage close to 67%.  Moreover, from the 8 games that Egypt gave, (during the 2nd and 3rd stage of the African preliminaries round), only in 3 games managed to keep the sheet clean; 2 out of the 3 games, were against the national team of Chad (175th in FIFA Ranking), and the national team of Uganda (82th in FIFA Ranking).
2. If Egypt, had 3 or less shots on target AND its total shots are less than 8 (shots on target + shots off target) then there is high probability to fail on receiving a positive result.
3. If Egypt, managed to score at least 2 goals AND won ball’s possession, (a percentage greater than its average value – 53%) AND also managed to make almost 15 total shots, then it is going to have many chances to win the game.

Uruguay

1. If Uruguay’s ball possession rate is 35% or less AND it’s shots on target are below 5.05 (average rate) AND it has 5 or less total shots during the game, then Uruguay will not receive a positive result.
2. Uruguay, usually scores at least 2 goals against teams of similar FIFA Ranking as Egypt. Based on that, if Uruguay, managed to win ball’s possession (greater than 50%) AND managed to make at least 4 shots on target then it has many chances to win the game.
3. Uruguay is predicted to receive at least 2 yellow cards. During preliminaries, its average number was 2.1 yellow cards, presenting them as one of the “toughest” teams in the South American preliminaries.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 3 yellow cards during the match. In addition, it is predicted that at least 2 goals are going to be scored. Furthermore, Uruguay is expected to win ball’s possession. Based on our analysis, the most likely result is Uruguay’s win.

Match 2: Morocco – Iran

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Morocco and Iran. The “Atlas Lions” (as Morocco’s national team is commonly known), coached by H. Renard (FIFA ranking: 41) has been qualified from the African Preliminaries round, while the team of C. Queiroz (FIFA ranking: 37), qualified from the Asian Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Morocco

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal+	Yellow Cards
Shots on Target	Ball Possession

Iran

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal –	Yellow Cards
Shots off Target	Ball Possession

Team Statistical Profiles:

Morocco

1. Morocco is predicted to receive at least 1 yellow card. During preliminaries, it had an average of 1.5 yellow cards per game.
2. When Morocco, faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Iran, makes almost 12 total shots (shots on target + shots off target). Furthermore, Morocco’s opponents had difficulties on scoring a goal. In 8 games, during preliminaries, it received only 1 goal.
3. If Morocco, managed to win ball’s possession with a percentage of greater than 59% AND managed to make more than its 6.5 shots on target (average value) then it is expected to score at least 1 goal.

Iran

1. Iran is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card. During preliminaries, it had an average of 1.2 yellow cards per game.
2. If Iran managed to have a ball possession rate close to (50%), (its average rate during the preliminaries) AND tries at least 3-4 shots on target (its average value is 3.2) then it is going to have many chances to get a positive result.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
During the game the referee is expected to show at least 2-3 yellow cards. Furthermore, if Morocco wins ball’s possession and tries at least 5-6 shots on target, then it is expected to score at least 1 goal. Based on the above, Morocco has many chances to get a positive result.

Match 3: Portugal – Spain

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Portugal and Spain. The European champion, coached by F. Santos (FIFA ranking: 4) has been qualified from the European Preliminaries round. The 2010 World Cup champion team of F. Hierro (FIFA ranking: 10), qualified also from the European Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Portugal

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal –	Shots off Target
Shots on Target	Aerial Duels Won

Spain

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Ball Recoveries
Ball Possession	Duels Won

Team Statistical Profiles:

Portugal

1. When Portugal, faces teams with similar FIFA Ranking as Spain AND has ball possession less than 55% AND makes less that 4 shots on target AND also receives at least 1 yellow card, then it is facing difficulties on getting a positive result.
2. If Portugal managed to have ball possession greater than 64.5% (average rate from the preliminaries) AND also managed to score 2-3 goals (average goals scored is 3.2) then it is expected to get a positive result.

Spain

1. If Spain managed to have ball possession greater than 66% (average rate from the preliminaries)AND its total shots are almost 10, then it has many chances on getting a positive result.
2. If Spain receives at least 1 goal AND its total shots are 6 or less then it is predicted to face difficulties on winning the game, with some chances to reach the draw.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
It is expected that, both of the teams will receive at least 1 yellow card. Furthermore, it is predicted a balance on the shots on target (3-5 shots each one) and on the total shots (8-10 shots each one). The team that is going to win ball’s possession, will have more chances to get a positive result.