Match 1: Brazil – Mexico

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Brazil (FIFA ranking: 2) and Mexico (FIFA ranking: 15). “Selecao”, coached by Tite won the first place of Group E by collecting 7 points. While, the team of Juan Carlos Osorio, qualified from the second place of Group F with 6 points.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Brazil

Strengths	Weaknesses
Pass Success Rate	Aerial Duels Won
Possession	Interception

Mexico

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Yellow Cards
Saves	Shots on Target

Team Statistical Profiles:

Brazil

1. One of Brazil’s main characteristics is the number of total shots per game. Its average value is almost 14 shots per game. During the preliminaries, Brazil scored on average 2.2 goals per game. While the corresponding stats so far, during the World Cup are; almost 6 shots on target and 9 shots off target per game and managed to score 5 goals in 3 games. 
2. When Brazil, faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as Mexico, it usually wins the ball possession AND tries more shots on target than its opponent. It is expected to reach its average ball possession rate (close to 58%) AND is expected to try at least 5 shots on target. Furthermore, Brazil has so far one of the highest passing success rate in the Mundial, with an average rate close to 89%.
3. Based on its preliminaries stats, Brazil is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card AND to lose the aerial duels from Mexico.
   

Mexico

1. Based on Mexico’s preliminaries stats; Mexico usually, scores on average 1.8 goals per game. When it does so, Mexico has an average ball possession rate close to 61%. So far, in the World Cup in three games it scored 3 goals. When Mexico faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Brazil, it has many chances to score at least 1 goal.
2. Mexico is expected to receive at least 2 yellow cards. Its preliminaries average rate on yellow cards was 1.5 cards per game, while the corresponding rate for the World Cup is almost 1.6 cards (5 yellow cards on 3 games).
   
3. Although that Mexico, has one of the best goalkeepers in the tournament, Guillermo Ochoa (Ochoa has so far 17 saves AND received 3 goals), it is expected to receive at least 1 goal from Brazil.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is expected to show at least 3 yellow cards, as both of the teams is predicted to be banned with at least 1 yellow card. Brazil is expected to win the ball possession and to have higher passing success rate than Mexico, being more likely to score at least 1 goal and win the game. 

Match 2: Belgium – Japan

This report is focused on the analysis of the match, between Belgium (FIFA ranking: 3) and Japan (FIFA ranking: 61). The  team of R. Martinez proceed to round of 16 as undefeated, by collected 9 points, winning the first place of Group G. While, the team A. Nishino, gathered 4 points on Group stage and received the second place of Group H.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Belgium

Strengths	Weaknesses
Pass Success Rate	Interception
Goal +	Yellow Cards

Japan

Strengths	Weaknesses
Saves	Goal –
Interception	Shots on Target

Team Statistical Profiles:

Belgium

1. Belgium’s preliminaries stats for Goal+ and Goal- were really productive. On average, Belgium scored 4.3 goals and received 0.6 goals per game. In 10 preliminary games, Belgium achieved 9 wins and only 1 drawn, against Greece. While in the World Cup, Belgium has so far three wins.
2. During its first three games of the World Cup, Belgium scored 9 goals, by having in average 7 shots on target per game AND it received only 2 goals. Based on its preliminaries stats, the corresponding shooting on target average was almost 9 shots per game. Thus, Belgium is expected to try in average 7 shots on target AND it is predicted to score at least 2 goals.
3. It usually receives 1.5 yellow cards per game. In case that Belgium faces difficulties during the game it is expected to receive more than 1 yellow card.

Japan

1. Japan is not used on playing a ball possession style of football, preferring the counter attack style. Thus, it is expected to lose the ball possession from Belgium, but it is expected to win the interceptions.
2. When Japan faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Belgium, it usually receives at least 1 yellow card AND 1 goal during the game. Moreover, Japan is expected to try less than 4 shots on target (its average value on shoots on target) AND have in total less than 8 shots during the game.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 3 yellow cards during the game. Moreover, it is predicted that Belgium is going to win the ball possession and to try more shots on target than Japan, being in the end more likely to score at least 1 goal.