Match 1: Spain – Russia

This report is focused on the analysis of the third match of the round of 16 between Spain (FIFA ranking: 10) and Russia (FIFA ranking: 70). The 2010 World Cup champion team of F. Hierro, gained the first position on Group B, by collecting 5 points. While, the team of St. Cherchesov that has been qualified for the World Cup 2018 as the host country, gathered 6 points on the Group stage and won the second place of Group A.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Spain

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Aerial Duels Won
Possession	Interception

Russia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Possession
Saves	Ball Recoveries

Team Statistical Profiles:

Spain

1. When Spain faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Russia, it usually tries more than 10 shots in total AND at least 3 shots on target. Moreover, it is expected to win the ball possession rate and reach its preliminaries average rate (66%). Due to that, Spain is expected to score at least 1 goal.
2. Based on its preliminaries and World Cup stats, Spain is expected to lose the aerial duels AND to receive at least 1 yellow card during the game.

Russia

1. Russia, is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card during the game. During the Group stage, Russia received 4 yellow cards in total.
2. Russia based on its stats, is not used on playing a ball possession style of football, preferring a more counter attacking style. Thus, Russia is expected to lose the ball possession. It has been estimated that it will reach a ball possession rate close to 40% AND is expected to try at least 3 shots on target.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Both of the teams is predicted to be banned with at least 1 yellow card. Therefore, the referee is going to show at least 2 yellow cards during the game. Spain will be more likely to win the ball possession and is expected to try more shots on target than Russia.

Match 2: Croatia – Denmark

This report is focused on the analysis of the match, between Croatia (FIFA ranking: 20) and Denmark (FIFA ranking: 12). The team of Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic, coached by Z. Dalic managed to proceed to the next round (undefeated with 9 points) by winning the first position in Group D. The team of A. Hareide gathered 5 points (one win and two draws) and finished in the second place of Group C.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Croatia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Aerial Duels Won	Interception
Goal +	Yellow Cards

Denmark

Strengths	Weaknesses
Saves	Yellow Cards
Interception	Possession

Team Statistical Profiles:

Croatia

1. Croatia’s average Goal+ rate during the preliminaries was almost 1.6 goal/game, by scoring 19 goals in 12 games. While, in the World Cup it has scored 7 goals (2.3 goals per game). Thus, it is expected to score at least 1 goal in the game.
2. When Croatia faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as Denmark, it usually wins the ball possession AND tries more shots on target than its opponent. But on the other hand it receives in average 2 yellow cards. Thus it is expected to win the ball possession, with a rate close to its preliminaries’ average possession rate (55%) AND is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card.
3. In contrast if Croatia, is going to lose the ball possession AND receive at least 2 yellow cards AND also try less than 3 shots on target, then it is expected to face difficulties on receiving a positive result.

Denmark

1. When Denamrk faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as Croatia, it usually loses the ball possession AND receives at least 1 yellow card. Based on its preliminaries and World Cup stats it has in average 1 yellow card per game.
2. If Denmark’s shots on target are less than 3 AND simultaneously the ball possession rate is less than its World Cup average rate 45% AND the total shots are 8 or less, then it will face difficulties on getting a positive result.
3. Based on the World Cup stats, Denmark has one of the best goalkeepers of the tournament. Kasper Schmeichel, has so far 14 saves and received only 1 goal (by penalty from Australia). Additionally, it also had one of the best Goal- rate during the European preliminaries by receiving only 9 goals in 12 games. Moreover, it is expected to win the interceptions but on the other hand it is going to lose the aerial duels.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 3-4 yellow cards during the game. Moreover, it is predicted that Denmark is going to win the interceptions. While, Croatia is going to win the ball possession and to try more shots on target than Denmark, having in the end more chances to get the win and qualify to the quarter finals.