Match 1: France – Argentina

This report is focused on the analysis of the first match of round of 16 between France (FIFA ranking: 7) and Argentina (FIFA ranking: 5). The team of D. Deschamps won the first place of Group C with 7 points. While on the other hand, the team of J. Sampaoli, faced many difficulties on Group stage. Argentina gathered only 4 points and finally won the 2nd place of Group D, by scoring a last minute goal in their last match on Group stage against Nigeria.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

France

Strengths	Weaknesses
Shots on Target	Ball Recoveries
Aerial Duels Won	Shots off Target

Argentina

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Yellow Cards
Pass Success Rate	Interception

Team Statistical Profiles:

France

1. France is expected to try too many shots during the game (its average rate during the preliminaries was almost 14 shots per game & the corresponding shooting rate during the World Cup is almost 11 shots per game). Moreover, it is expected to try at least 4 shots on target, having many chances to score at least 1 goal.
2. France, is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card during the game. Based on its preliminaries and World Cup stats it receives in average 1 yellow card per game.
3. When France faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as Argentina AND reaches ball possession rate close to 55% AND has in average at least 4 shots on target, then it is more likely to get a positive result.

Argentina

1. When Argentina, faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking position as France, it usually receives at least 1 goal AND at least 2 yellow cards.
2. Argentina, is expected to win the ball possession, (its average preliminaries’ rate was 59% and the corresponding World Cup rate is almost 65%). It is also expected to have at least 6 to 7 total shots (shots on target + shots off target). Thus it is projected to try at least 3 shots on target AND 3 shots off target.
3. Argentina is expected to have higher pass success rate than France, managing to have more successful passes than its opponent. But on the other hand it is going to lose the aerial duels from France.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Both of the teams will be banned with at least 1 yellow card and the referee is expected to show at least 3 yellow cards during the game. Argentina is expected to win the ball possession, while France is going to have more shots on target than Argentina and in the end it is projected to be more likely to get a win.

Match 2: Uruguay – Portugal

This report is focused on the analysis of the match, between Uruguay (FIFA ranking: 14) and Portugal (FIFA ranking: 4). The team of O. Tabarez proceed to the next round of World Cup undefeated from Group A, by gathering 9 points and keeping its clean sheet so far. While on the other hand, the European champion, of the superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, coached by F. Santos qualified to round 16 with only one win and two draws on group stage, by scoring 5 goals and receiving 4 goals.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Uruguay

Strengths	Weaknesses
Shots on Target	Possession
Goal –	Yellow Cards

Portugal

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Yellow Cards
Possession	Interception

Team Statistical Profiles:

Uruguay

1. When Uruguay faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Portugal, it usually receives at least 2 yellow cards AND when it tries less than 5 shots on target, it is expected to face difficulties on getting a positive result.
2. Moreover, based on its preliminaries stats and the stats from the Group stage, Uruguay is not used on winning the ball possession when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Portugal. Thus, it is expected to have a ball possession rate close to its average value (42%).
3. Although that, it is expected to lose the ball possession, Uruguay as a team tries many shots during a game. It is expected to try more than 5 shots on target AND more than 10 shots in total, by having many chances to score at least 1 goal.

Portugal

1. Based on the European preliminaries stats and the stats from the Group stage, Portugal is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card during the game. In the first three games of the World Cup it received 6 yellow cards, meaning 2 cards per game.
2. Portugal’s average ball possession rate during the preliminaries was almost 60%, but when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking as Uruguay, it faces difficulties on retaining the ball possession and its rate dropped to almost 50%. Nevertheless, it is expected to try at least 3 shots on target, expecting to score at least 1 goal.
3. On the other hand, if Portugal, tries few shots (total shots less than 5) AND simultaneously, if it is going to be banned with at least 2 yellow cards AND its ball possession is less than 50%, it will face difficulties to get a positive result.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 3-4 yellow cards during the game. Moreover, it is predicted that both teams will try at least 3 shots on target. Portugal is going to be more likely to win the ball possession in a very ambiguous game.