Match 1: Japan – Poland

This report is focused on the analysis of the last match in group stage between Japan (FIFA ranking: 61) and Poland (FIFA ranking: 8). The “Blue Samurai” of A. Nishino, qualified from the Asian Preliminaries round. So far, in the Group Stage they have collected four points (one win & one draw). The team of Robert Lewandowski, coached by A. Nawalka that qualified from the European Preliminaries round is in the last position of Group H with zero points.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Japan

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Interception
Yellow Cards*	Shots on Target

Poland

Strengths	Weaknesses
Fouls Won	Goal –
Shots on Target	Ball Recoveries

* Japan in the preliminaries round had in average 0.5 yellow cards. This is the reason it has the yellow cards in its strengths.

Team Statistical Profiles:

Japan

1. Japan, although that it has a low total shots percentage (almost 8 total shots per game) it is expected to score at least 1 goal (its preliminaries average Goal+ in the was almost 2.4 goals).
2. Japan is not used on playing a ball possession style of football, preferring the counter attack style. Also, Japan receives few cards in its matches.

Poland

1. Poland is used to receive at least 1 yellow card per match. So far, in the first two games of Group H, it has 3 yellow cards.
2. It also receives 1 goal per game. During, 10 preliminaries matches, Poland had an average Goal – value 1.4 goals. The corresponding average Goal – value on the first two games of the World Cup is 2.5 goals per game.
3. If Poland is going to have a ball possession rate less than 54.2% (this is its average ball possession rate) AND simultaneously has few shots on target, then is expected to face difficulties on receiving a positive result.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Poland is epxected to win the ball possession and to try more shots in total than Japan. Moreover, both of the teams is expected to score at least 1 goal, with Poland being more likely to get a positive result.

Match 2: Senegal – Colombia

This report is focused on the analysis of the match, between Senegal (FIFA ranking: 27) and Colombia (FIFA ranking: 16). The team of A. Cisse, qualified from the African Preliminaries round and has so far four points being in the first place of Group H. While the team of J. Pekerman that qualified from the Central American Preliminaries has so far three points.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Senegal

Strengths	Weaknesses
Duels Won	Possession
Interception	Yellow Cards

Colombia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Interception
Saves	Aerial Duels Won

Team Statistical Profiles:

Senegal

1. Senegal, usually receives at least 1 yellow card per game. In the preliminaries its average rate was 1.8 yellow cards per game. So far it had received 5 yellow cards in the first two games of Group H.
2. It is used on trying too many shots AND is expected to score at least 1 goal. But on the other hand, when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Colombia, it faces difficulties on winning the ball possession.

Colombia

1. Based on preliminaries, Colombia scores at least 1 goal and receives 1 goal per game. Moreover, it usually receives 2 yellow cards (its average value was 2.05 cards per game). If Colombia is not getting a positive result, it might also receive 2 more yellow cards.
2. When, Colombia’s shots on target is less than its average (4.7 shots) AND its ball possession is less than its average rate (51%) it might get difficulties on getting a positive result.
3. Colombia, when it faces teams like Senegal (similar FIFA Ranking), it faces difficulties on keeping the clean sheet and simultaneously it tries less shots on target than its average value (almsot 6 shots).

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 3-4 yellow cards during the game. Moreover, it is predicted than they will be scored at least 2 goals in the game, with Colombia being the more likely team to reach the win.

Match 3: Panama – Tunisia

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Panama (FIFA ranking: 55) and Tunisia (FIFA ranking: 21). The team of Hernan Dario Gomez, qualified for the first time to the World Cup through the Central American Preliminaries round and it has zero points, being in the last position of Group Z. While the team of N. Maaloul  that qualified undefeated from the African Preliminaries round has also zero points with two defeats.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Panama

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Goal –
Aerial Duels Won	Yellow Cards

Tunisia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Yellow Cards
Goal –	Duels Won

Team Statistical Profiles:

Panama

1. Based on the the Central American preliminaries stats, Panama is used to get at least 2 yellow card per game and 1 goal per game. So far in the first two games of the World Cup it had received 8 yellow cards.
2. When Panama managed to have less than 4.3 average shots on target  AND receive at least 2 yellow cards, then definitely it will face difficulties on getting a positive result.

Tunisia

1. Tunisia is a team that tries too many shots during a game. Based on its preliminaries stats, shots more than 15 shots per game (its average value in total shots is 15.25).
2.   It is used to score in average 1.8 goals per game. Thus it is expected to score at least 1 goal during the game against Panama.
3. Tunisia is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card. Its preliminaries’ average value of yellow cards was almost 1.5 cards per game.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
Statathlon predicts that the referee will show at least 3-4 yellow cards during the game. Tunisia is expected to win the ball possession and to try more shots than its opponent, having more chances to score at least 1 goal.

Match 4: England – Belgium

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between England (FIFA ranking: 12) and Belgium (FIFA ranking: 3). The “The Three Lions”, of G. Southgate, qualified from the European Preliminaries round and so far it has six points. The  team of R. Martinez has been also qualified (undefeated) from the European Preliminaries round and has six points on the Group Stage.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

England

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Ball Recoveries
Possession	Duels Won

Belgium

Strengths	Weaknesses
Shots on Target	Aerial Duels Won
Goal +	Interception

Team Statistical Profiles:

England

1. England is used on winning the ball possession AND shots in average 12 shots per game. As a result it scores 1.8 goal per game. Moreover, it receives in average 1.2 yellow cards per game.
2. When England faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Belgium, it usually receives at least 1 yellow card and it plays really tough, having great numbers on interception and on tackles won.

Belgium

1. Belgium’s preliminaries stats for Goal+ and Goal- were really productive. On average, Belgium scored 4.3 goals and received 0.6 per game. In 10 preliminary games, Belgium achieved 9 wins and only 1 drawn, against Greece. Its average shots on target is almost double-sized with 9.5 shots per game.
2. It usually receives 1.5 yellow cards per game. In case that Belgium faces difficulties during the game it is expected to receive more yellow cards than its average.
3. Belgium, when faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with England, is used on scoring at least 1 goal AND receiving at least 1 yellow card.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:

The referee is expected to show at least 3 yellow cards during the game. Both of teams are expected to try many shots and is projected to have the same possibilities of winning the game.