Match 1: South Korea – Germany

This report is focused on the analysis of the last match in group stage between South Korea (FIFA ranking: 61) and Germany (FIFA ranking: 1). The team of Shin-Tae Yong, qualified from the Asian Preliminaries round. So far, South Korea has two defeats (0-1 from Sweden & 1-2 from Mexico). The team of J. Low, has been qualified undefeated from the European Preliminaries round and it has collected three points, by having one win and one defeat.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

South Korea

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Yellow Cards
Saves	Goal –

Germany

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Ball Recoveries
Shots on Target	Shots off Target

Team Statistical Profiles:

South Korea

1. South Korea, is not likely to try many shots during the game. Its average total shots value in the preliminaries was almost 7-8 shots per game. Moreover, South Korea, when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Germany is expected to lose the ball possession AND to try less than 3-4 shots on target.
2. Finally, South Korea is expected to receive at least 2 goals and 2 yellow cards during the game, facing difficulties on getting a positive result.

Germany

1. Two of main Germany’s advantages during the preliminaries round, were the well organized defensive line (average Goal – value: 0.4 goals per game) and the very powerful offensive line (4.3 average goals per game).
2. When, Germany controls ball possession (its average value in the preliminaries was 69%) AND has at least 8-9 shots on target, usually scores more than 2 goals. Moreover, Germany’s average value in total shots (shots on target + shots off target) is 15.5 shots per game.
3. It is expected that Germany, will try at least 5-6 shots on target, scoring at least 2 goals.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 3 yellow cards during the game, with South Korea being more likely to have most of the yellow cards in the game. Moreover, Germany is expected to win the ball possession and to try more shots than South Korea and in the end Germany will be more likely to win the game.

Match 2: Mexico – Sweden

This report is focused on the analysis of the match, between Mexico (FIFA ranking: 15) and Sweden (FIFA ranking: 23). The team of Juan Carlos Osorio, qualified from the Central American Preliminaries round. Mexico, has so far six points on the group stage. While the team of J. Andersson that qualified from the European Preliminaries round, has so far three points (one win and one defeat).

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Mexico

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Shots off Target
Saves	Aerial Duels Won

Sweden

Strengths	Weaknesses
Duels Won	Interception
Ball Recoveries	Possession

Team Statistical Profiles:

Mexico

1. Based on preliminaries, Mexico scores on average 1.8 goals per game. When it does so, Mexico has an average ball possession close to 61%. So far, in the World Cup in two games it socred 3 goals and received only 1 goal.
2. When Mexico, receives at least 2 yellow cards during a game, it faces difficulties on scoring a goal and even more on getting a positive result.
3. Mexico’s main characteristic is its well organised defensive line. During preliminaries, it managed keep the sheets clean in more that 60% of the games (10 out of 16 preliminary games), having one of the best goalkeepers in the tournament, Guillermo Ochoa.

Sweden

1. In the European preliminaries, Sweden received in total 18 yellow cards, more than any other team. Its average yellow cards number was 1.5 cards per game. Thus, it is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card.
2. Sweden, usually does not have high rate percentages in ball possession, preferring a counter attacking style in its game. If the ball possession is less than 36% AND its shots on target are too few (0-3) AND its total shots are 4 or less, then it will not get a win.
3. Sweden, when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Mexico, usually loses the ball possession AND tries few shots on target (3-5 shots).

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 2 yellow cards during the game. Mexico is expected to win the ball possession and to try more shots than Sweden.

Match 3: Serbia – Brazil

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Serbia (FIFA ranking: 34) and Brazil (FIFA ranking: 2). The team of M. Krstajic, qualified from the European Preliminaries round and it has so far three points on the group stage. While “Selecao”, coached by Tite has been qualified as first from the South American Preliminaries round and has so far four points leading the Group E.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Serbia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Aerial Duels Won	Possession
Fouls Won	Yellow Cards

Brazil

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Aerial Duels Won
Shots on Target	Interceptions

Team Statistical Profiles:

Serbia

1. Based on its preliminaries’ performance, Serbia received almost 1.8 yellow cards per match. So far it had received 6 yellow cards in the two first games of the Group Stage.
2. Moreover, Serbia is expected to receive at least 1 goal. During the preliminaries it managed to keep its clean sheet only in 4 games.
3. Serbia, when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Brazil, usually receives 2 yellow cards in average AND also when it is going to have less shots on target than its average rate (4.8) it is predicted to face difficulties on getting a positive result.

Brazil

1. One of Brazil’s main characteristics is the number of total shots per game. Its average value is almost 14 shots per game. During preliminaries, Brazil scored on average 2.2 goals per game. If Brazil wins ball possession, with a percentage close to 60%, then it is expected to score at least 2 goals.
2. Brazil, had the best Goal – record in the South American preliminaries by receiving only 11 goals in 18 games. In the Group Stage of the World Cup it had received so far only 1 goal.
3. It is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card, as its average number on yellow cards during the preliminaries was almost 1.5 yellow cards per game.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 2-3 yellow cards during the game. Brazil is expected to win the ball possession and to try more shots on target than Serbia. Thus, it projected to have more chances for the win than its opponent.

Match 4: Switzerland – Costa Rica

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Switzerland (FIFA ranking: 6) and Costa Rica (FIFA ranking: 23). The team of V. Petkovic, qualified from the European Preliminaries round. Switzerland is in the second place of Group E with four points. While “Los Ticos” of O.Ramirez  that qualified from the Central American Preliminaries round is in the last position with zero points and two defeats.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Switzerland

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Duels Won
Possession	Shots off Target

Costa Rica

Strengths	Weaknesses
Saves	Shots on Target
Ball Recoveries	Goal +

Team Statistical Profiles:

Switzerland

1. When Switzerland has low ball possession rate (almost 50%, while its average ball possession percentage is 61%) AND 0-2 shots on target, then it is expected to face difficulties on getting a positive result.
2. Although, that Switzerland shots too many shots (average shots off target is 7.75 and average shots on target is 6.3), it is projected to score at least 1 goal unless it will win the ball possession.
3. Switzerland, usually receives 1.5 yellow cards per game. So far, it has 4 yellow cards on the first two games of the Group Stage. Thus, it is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card during the game.

Costa Rica

1. Based on its performance on the preliminaries round, Costa Rica receives at least 2 yellow cards AND at least 1 goal when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Switzerland.
2. Costa Rica, is not used on playing a ball possession football style, as its average ball possession rate during the preliminaries was almost 47.3%.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:

Statathlon predicts that the referee will show at least 3 yellow cards during the game. Switzerland is expected to win the ball possession and to try more shots than Costa Rica during the game. Finally, it is projected to have more chances to score at least 1 goal than its opponent and in the end to be more likely on getting a positive result.