Match 1: Australia– Peru

This report is focused on the analysis of the last match in group stage between Australia (FIFA ranking: 36) and Peru (FIFA ranking: 11). The team of B. van Marwijk , qualified from the Asian Preliminaries round. So far, it has one defeat (1-2 from France) and one draw with Denmark (1-1). The team of R. Gareca  has been qualified to the World Cup after 36 years of absence, from the South American Preliminaries round and has zero points, being in the last position of Group C.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Australia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal +	Interceptiom
Shots on Target	Goal –

Peru

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Shots off Target
Saves	Yellow Cards

Team Statistical Profiles:

Australia

1. Australia is expected to receive at least 1 goal. During preliminaries, it was receiving 0.82 goals per match.
2. Australia is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card. During preliminaries, it was receiving almost 1.5 yellow cards per match.
3. If Australia’s shots on target are 4 or less (its average value is 4.5) AND the shots off target are less than 6.2 then it is expected to face difficulties on getting a positive result, when it faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Peru.

Peru

1. Peru, usually receives too many cards. It is predicted that it will receive at least 2 yellow cards. During preliminaries, it had the highest average percentage in red cards with 0.1 per game and 2.4 yellow cards.
2. If Peru managed to have ball’s possession with a rate greater than 50.6% AND try at least 5 shots on target, then it is expected to score 1 goal.
3. When, Peru faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Australia it is used to win the ball possession AND to try in average 10 shots in total.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 3 to 4 yellow cards. Peru is expected to have more shots on target than Australia and also is expected to win the ball possession in an ambiguous game.

Match 2: Denmark – France

This report is focused on the analysis of the last match of Group C, between Denmark (FIFA ranking: 12) and France (FIFA ranking: 7). The team of A. Hareide, qualified from the European Preliminaries round and has collected so far 4 points (one win and one draw). While the team of D. Deschamps has been also qualified from the European Preliminaries round and is leading Group C with two wins.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Denmark

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Possession
Aerial Duels Won	Ball Recoveries

France

Strengths	Weaknesses
Shots on Target	Saves
Possession	Interception

Team Statistical Profiles:

Denamrk

1. Denmark, usually scores at least 1 goal AND it receives at least 1 yellow card when it faces teams like France (similar FIFA Ranking). Moreover, Denmark tries too many shots (total shots average = 12), so it is expected to follow similar ‘behaviour’ during that game. Finally, it is expected to have an advantage on the aerial duels.
2. If Denmark’s shots on target are below 6.1 AND simultaneously the ball possession rate is less than 59% AND the total shots are 10 or less, then it will face difficulties on getting a positive result.

France

1. France is expected to try too many shots during the game (its average rate is almost 14 shots per game) AND also is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card.
2. Based on the analysis, if France faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with Denmark AND wins the ball possession (close to its preliminaries’ average – 60%), then is expected to score at least 1 goal. On the other hand, if France’s shots on target are less than 6 AND simultaneously banned with at least 1 yellow card, then is expected to face difficulties on getting a positive result.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 2 yellow cards during the game. Both of the teams are likely to score at least 1 goal and France is expected to have more shots on target than its opponent.

Match 3: Nigeria – Argentina

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Nigeria (FIFA ranking: 48) and Argentina (FIFA ranking: 5). The “Super Eagles”, coached by G. Rohr qualified from the African Preliminaries round and they have one win against Iceland (2-0) and one defeat from Croatia (0-2). The team of Lionel Messi and Sergio Auguero, coached by J. Sampaoli has been qualified from the South American Preliminaries round and has only one point in Group D.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Nigeria

Strengths	Weaknesses
Shots off Target	Aerial Duels Won
Interception	Shots on Target

Argentina

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Fouls Conceded
Shots on Target	Interceptions

Team Statistical Profiles:

Nigeria

1. Nigeria, based on its preliminaries stats performance, is expected to receive at least 1 goal AND if it is going to have a ball possession less than its average rate (45%) it is expected to face difficulties on receiving a positive result.
2. Nigeria, is expected to receive at least 1 yellow card. Its average value on the yellow cards during preliminaries was 1.5 cards per game.

Argentina

1. When, Argentina faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking with  Nigeria it scores in average (at least) 1 goal AND also gets at least 1 yellow card.
2. Argentina, is expected to win the ball possession, (its average preliminaries’ rate was 59%). It is also it is expected to have at least 6 to 7 total shots (shots on target + shots off target).

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:
The referee is predicted to show at least 2 yellow cards during the game. Argentina is expected to win the ball possession and to try more shots than Nigeria during the game. Finally, Argentina is expected to score at least 1 goal and in the end it is going to have more chances for the win.

Match 4: Iceland – Croatia

This report is focused on the analysis of the match between Iceland (FIFA ranking: 22) and Croatia (FIFA ranking: 20). The team of H. Hallgrimsson, qualified for the first time of its history to a World Cup from the European Preliminaries round and has collected so far only one point (draw with Argentina). The team of Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic, coached by Z. Dalic  has been also qualified from the European Preliminaries round. Croatia is leading Group D and achieved to proceed to the next round. The interesting fact, is that during the preliminaries Croatia and Iceland were in the same group as well by having one win each.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Iceland

Strengths	Weaknesses
Interception	Goal +
Saves	Possession

Croatia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Possession	Yellow Cards
Goal +	Duels Won

Team Statistical Profiles:

Iceland

1. Iceland, despite it’s low ball possession rate (average rate is 44.9%), has many chances to score at least 1 goal. Based on preliminaries’ performance, it scored at least 1 goal in 8/10 matches. Interesting fact: On the 2 matches that Iceland didn’t score,  it lost the game at the last minutes (The one of the mentioned matches was against Croatia.)
2. When Iceland has few shots on target (below its average value, 4.8) AND it receives at least 2 yellow cards then it is predicted to face difficulties on getting a positive result.
3. If Iceland, managed to try at least 7 shots on target then it is predicted to score at least 1 goal. In 6/10 games of the preliminaries it scored 2 or more goals. But, against Croatia in the preliminaries it faced difficulties, scoring only 1 goal with 4 shots on target during the 2 games.

Croatia

1. Croatia is expected to score at least 1 goal in the game, as its average Goal+ rate during preliminaries was almost 1.5 goal/game. It is also expected to receive at least 1 yellow card.
2. During the preliminaries, Croatia faced Iceland twice and it won the game that it hosted. During these two mentioned games, Croatia won the ball possession AND tried more shots than Iceland, but on the other hand it got more cards than Iceland (4 yellow cards and 2 red cards).
3. If Croatia, has ball possession less than its average rate – 55% AND receives at least 2 yellow cards AND also tries 0-3 shots on target, then it is expected to face difficulties on receiving a positive result.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game:

The projected indicators for the game:

The referee is expected to show at least 3 yellow cards during the game. Croatia is expected to win the ball possession and to try more shots on target than Iceland.