Match 1: Russia – Saudi Arabia

This report is focused on the analysis for the 1st match of the World Cup 2018, between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The team of St. Cherchesov (FIFA ranking: 70) has been qualified for the World Cup 2018 as the host country, while the team of J. Antonio Pizzi (FIFA ranking: 67), qualified from the Asian Preliminaries round.

Strengths vs Weaknesses

Russia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal+	Shots on Target
Ball Recoveries	Ball Possession

Saudi Arabia

Strengths	Weaknesses
Goal+	Shots on Target
Yellow Cards*	Goal –

* Saudi Arabia, doesn’t receive many yellow cards. This is the reason why the yellow cards are in Saudi Arabia’s strengths. More specifically, its has been measured that the average number of yellow cards in the preliminaries was below 0.7 (less than 0,7 yellow card per game). In almost 50% of the preliminaries games, Saudi Arabia didn’t receive any yellow or red card.

Team Statistical Profiles:

Russia

1. If Russia managed to win the ball possession of the game (50% or higher), then it is expected to score at least 1 goal.
2. Russia, is predicted to get at least 1 yellow card, during the game.

Saudi Arabia

1. When Suadi Arabia faces teams of a similar FIFA Ranking, usually receives at least 1 goal.
2. If Saudi Arabia’s ball possession is below 50% AND also the shots on target are too few (0 – 3), then it is predicted to lose the game.
3. If it has 7 or more total shots AND also its ball possession is above its average rate (56.2%), then it is likely to get a positive result.

Prediction of the Game:

The following graph illustrates the estimated probabilities regarding the result of this game (α=0.05):

The projected indicators for the game:
Russia will be banned with at least 1 yellow card and is predicted to score at least 1 goal. Moreover, it is expected that Saudi Arabia will face difficulties on scoring a goal and in the end if Russia managed to win the ball possession, then it is more likely to get a positive result (win or draw).